Export prices for corn in Ukraine continue to rise

The increase in demand for Ukrainian corn from Turkey has somewhat stimulated demand from European buyers, who are trying to purchase the necessary batches before prices in Ukraine rise.

During the week, export prices for corn in Ukraine increased by 150-200 UAH/t to 10,950-11,100 UAH/t or $220-223/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but farmers continue to hold back sales in anticipation of further growth.

Cold weather is delaying the sowing of spring crops, so farmers will not be able to actively ship and sell corn in the next two to three weeks, which will exacerbate the supply shortage and lead to further price increases.

Processors also raised corn prices to UAH 9,800-10,200/t delivered to the factory, which increases competition with exporters.

According to brokers, prices for corn delivered CIF-Italy have increased from $255/t CIF (≈$227/t FOB) to $260–262/t, which is equivalent to $225/t CPT – Ukrainian ports. At the same time, Ukraine has already significantly covered Italian demand: since the beginning of the season, 2.8 million tons of corn have been shipped there compared to 2.3 million tons a year earlier.

At the same time, Ukraine can export another 6-8 million tons of corn by the end of the season, but everything will depend on whether the price rises to last year’s level, when it reached $240-245/ton for deliveries to the port in May – June.

Rising prices for the new wheat crop could also support corn prices in June and July.

Over the week, July corn quotes in Chicago rose 2% to $184.4/t (unchanged on the month) on the back of higher oil prices, but favorable planting weather in the US limits further gains. At the same time, December futures also rose 2% to $192.5/t (+1% on the month).

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of April 26, 25% of the planned area has been sown with corn in the US, which is 6% higher than the 5-year average, and the precipitation forecast in the “corn belt” will help accelerate planting.

The South African National Crop Evaluation Committee (CEC) has raised its forecast for South Africa’s maize production in 2025 from 16.5 million tonnes to a record 16.8 million tonnes, 2% higher than in 2024. The country is currently harvesting, which will end in June.

On April 24, South Korean NOFI purchased 65,000 tons of feed corn from Posco in a private deal for delivery by August 20 at a price of $263.58/ton C&F, which indicates that there is a significant amount of supply of cheap old-crop corn on the market for August deliveries.