Export prices for corn in Ukraine are rising, while world prices remain under pressure from improved weather in South America

In recent months, Ukraine’s corn exports have been slowing down due to the decline in demand from the EU and increased competition with South American grain.

In MY 2024/25 (as of December 4), Ukraine exported 7.4 mln tonnes of corn, up 14% compared to last year (6.47 mln tonnes).

Amid declining supply from producers, export demand prices for corn in Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea increased by 2-3 USD/t over the week to 196-198 USD/t or 9300-9350 UAH/t.

At the same time, the depreciation of the Euro and corn prices in the EU market reduces the demand for Ukrainian corn from traditional buyers, so domestic farmers should accelerate the sale of grain before the arrival of the main crop from South America.

the March corn futures in Paris for a month are trading at 206,75 €/t or 217 $/t amid increasing production forecasts in the EU.

the European Commission has raised its forecast of corn production in the EU from 58 to 59.6 million tons, which is only 3% less than last year’s harvest. The biggest adjustments were made for Romania and France. At the same time, the forecast of corn imports in 2024/25 MY was increased by 0.5 mln tonnes to 19.5 mln tonnes, and ending stocks – by 2 mln tonnes to 19.4 mln tonnes.

the December corn futures on the Chicago stock exchange for the week rose by 1.4% to 165 $/t (which corresponds to the level of last month), but remain under pressure from increased crop forecasts in South America.

Agency Agroconsult increased its forecast of corn production in Brazil in MY 2024/25 to 132.7 million tons, and exports – to 42 million tons, which is 3.5% and 9.2% higher than the previous season, as favorable for sowing corn first crop weather and active sowing of soybeans will allow to sow corn second crop in the optimal time. As of December 1, 65% of the country’s corn area was planted (60% last year).

According to the BAGE Grain Exchange, Argentina planted 41.3% of the planned 6.3 mln ha with corn, and 97% of the crops are in good or excellent condition, which gives hope for a good harvest.

Tags: corn, prices