European Commission cuts EU grain and oilseed production forecasts

The European Commission on Thursday revised downward its production forecasts for most grain and oilseed crops in the European Union for MY 2026/27. The largest adjustment concerns corn, with the crop now expected to decline significantly due to reduced planted area and unfavorable weather conditions.

The forecast for soft wheat production has been lowered to 124.4 mln tons from 126.3 mln tons projected a month earlier. Despite the revision, the crop is still expected to be around 8% larger than in MY 2025/26. At the same time, the EU’s soft wheat export forecast has been reduced to 29 mln tons from 30 mln tons, while ending stocks are now estimated at 12.9 mln tons, down from the previous forecast of 13.8 mln tons.

The sharpest downgrade was made for corn. The European Commission now expects production to reach just 51.9 mln tons, compared with 59.9 mln tons forecast in June. That would be nearly 14% below last year’s harvest. As domestic production prospects deteriorate, the EU’s corn import forecast has been raised to 24 mln tons, compared with 19.1 mln tons projected a month earlier.

Analysts attribute the weaker corn outlook primarily to a sharp reduction in planted area caused by high energy and fertilizer costs. Several periods of intense heat also negatively affected crop development across key producing countries.

The barley production forecast has also been lowered. Output is now expected at 51.05 mln tons, compared with 51.7 mln tons projected in June. By comparison, the EU harvested 55.6 mln tons of barley in MY 2025/26.

The European Commission also cut its forecast for sunflower seed production to 9.5 mln tons, down from 10.1 mln tons expected a month earlier. Even after the revision, however, production is still expected to exceed the 8.7 mln tons harvested in the previous season.

The updated estimates point to a challenging season for European crop production, driven mainly by adverse weather conditions and high production costs. Lower harvests of several major crops could increase the EU’s reliance on imports, particularly in the corn market, and reshape the grain market balance in MY 2026/27.

Tags: barley, EU, wheat, sunseed, crop forecast, corn