European Commission cuts EU corn production forecast to 47 mln tons

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for EU corn production in the MY 2026/27 to 47 mln tons, compared with 48.3 mln tons in its September estimate. The expected harvest has thus been reduced by 1.3 mln tons, or 2.7%. The weaker production outlook could increase the European market’s demand for imported corn, including supplies from Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Commission revised its soft wheat production forecast downward to 123.7 mln tons from the previous estimate of 124.2 mln tons. Despite the lower crop projection, the EU soft wheat export forecast for 2026/27 remained unchanged at 29 mln tons.

The forecast for EU soft wheat ending stocks was also reduced to 10.6 mln tons, compared with 11.4 mln tons in September. The decline of 800 thsd tons was partly attributed to a downward revision in beginning stocks. Lower reserves could limit the European market’s ability to offset potential disruptions to grain supplies.

At the same time, the EU barley production forecast was raised by 700 thsd tons, from 52.9 mln tons to 53.6 mln tons. Thus, while the outlook for corn and wheat production has deteriorated, barley production prospects remain more favorable.

In the oilseed sector, the European Commission increased its sunflower seed production forecast from 9.4 mln tons to 9.7 mln tons. Meanwhile, the rapeseed production estimate remained unchanged at 19.4 mln tons, while the import forecast was maintained at 6.4 mln tons. The updated figures indicate mixed trends in the production of the EU’s main grain and oilseed crops this season.

Tags: corn, EU