Europe may struggle to meet wheat demand from MENA countries

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) may import 5.56–7.06 mln tons of wheat in November-December 2026. According to Argus, strong demand for milling wheat and limited export capacity from the European Union, Russia and Ukraine could make it difficult to meet importers’ needs before the new crop arrives from the Southern Hemisphere.

Egypt is the main source of uncertainty, with total wheat demand in November-December estimated at 2–3.5 mln tons. State buyer Future of Egypt could purchase 1–1.5 mln tons of milling wheat, while private-sector demand is expected to reach 1.2–2 mln tons. Other major regional importers include Algeria, with potential demand of 1.26 mln tons, Morocco at 900 thsd tons and Saudi Arabia at 683 thsd tons. Egypt’s actual purchase volume will significantly affect the European supply balance and grain availability for other importers in the region.

Russian wheat exports through Baltic ports could reach 3 mln tons in November-December. Ukraine’s export potential for the period is estimated by Argus at around 250 thsd tons, based on average seaborne shipments in August-October. However, logistical risks could constrain flows: freezing in the Baltic Sea may affect Russian and EU ports, while low water levels on the Danube are complicating grain shipments from Ukrainian ports.

EU wheat exports traditionally slow in November-December after the main shipping season. Since 2013, slightly more than 16% of annual exports have been shipped during these two months. Based on Argus’ forecast of 31 mln tons of EU exports in MY 2026/27, potential shipments in November-December could be only slightly above 5 mln tons. EU export capacity is also used to ship spring crops, including corn and sunflower seeds, particularly in Romania and Bulgaria.

Combined wheat exports from Russia, Ukraine and the EU could reach around 8.3 mln tons in November-December, including both milling and feed wheat. Russian and Ukrainian sellers are likely to prioritize higher-priced milling wheat. Argentina and Australia are expected to supply significant volumes of new-crop wheat mainly from late December, leaving limited opportunities to increase supplies to the MENA market before then.

Tags: MENA, Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, export, EU, wheat, imports, restrictions, war