EU winter rapeseed area could fall by 8–18%, while sunflower plantings are set to reach a record

Winter rapeseed area in the European Union and the United Kingdom could decline significantly ahead of the 2027 harvest due to unfavorable weather conditions during the autumn planting campaign. According to Argus Media, plantings are forecast to fall by around 8% to 6.23 mln hectares, while a more pessimistic scenario suggests an 18% decline to 5.52 mln hectares. The main reason was dry weather in August and September, which complicated sowing and negatively affected crop establishment despite generally favorable economics for rapeseed cultivation.

The reduction in rapeseed plantings is forcing European farmers to reconsider their crop rotations. Some of the area could shift to wheat, but herbicide applications on fields originally intended for rapeseed are limiting opportunities to switch immediately to winter cereals. Meanwhile, spring barley area has been declining in recent years due to weak demand from the malting industry. Against this background, analysts expect some expansion in corn plantings, supported by rising prices and the need to rebuild grain stocks.

Sunflower could be the biggest beneficiary of these changes in crop rotations. According to Argus Media, sunflower area in the EU and the UK could reach a record 5.2 mln hectares, exceeding 5 mln hectares for the first time. European farmers are increasingly favoring sunflower because of its lower nitrogen fertilizer requirements and higher profitability compared with alternative crops. This could strengthen sunflower’s role in the region’s oilseed production structure.

The shift in planting priorities comes amid challenging conditions in the European grain market. Unfavorable weather during the 2025/26 season reduced yields in several EU countries, while disruptions to grain exports through the Black Sea provided additional support to global wheat prices. In recent weeks, wheat prices have risen to $258–280/t from around $225/t in early July. However, even at higher prices, wheat production in France could remain unprofitable in 2027.

A similar trend toward expanding oilseed plantings at the expense of cereals is also evident across the Black Sea region. In particular, Russia’s harvested rapeseed area reached a record 3.31 mln hectares in 2026, with further expansion expected in 2027. According to Argus Media, large-scale investments in oilseed crushing facilities have been one of the main drivers of this shift. Russia already has excess crushing capacity, while Kazakhstan continues to build new processing plants.

Tags: EU, sunseed, rapeseed, sown area