EU will reduce Ukrainian rapeseed imports to a four-year low and increase purchases from Canada
The European Union will reduce Ukrainian rapeseed imports in 2025/26 to 2.2 million tonnes, 0.6 million tonnes lower than the previous season and the lowest figure in four years, starting with 2021/22. This is the forecast by analysts at Oil World (Germany).
Analysts attribute the reduction in shipments to the introduced 10% export duty, as well as uncertainty surrounding the paperwork for exemptions from the export duty. It was previously noted that Ukrainian oilseed shipments to the EU effectively halted in early September.
At the same time, these losses could be offset by larger-than-expected canola harvests in Canada and Australia.
Overall, analysts have increased their estimate for EU rapeseed/canola imports in 2025/26 to 6.3 million tonnes, from the 6.15 million tonnes expected in August. In particular, Canada could export its largest volume of canola to the EU in five years, at 1.6 million tonnes, thanks to a more competitive price compared to EU rapeseed, while Australia will also see its supplies slightly reduced to 2.2 (3.87) million tonnes due to increased purchases from China.
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
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