EU wheat exporters lose key customer as Morocco cuts imports

Morocco, the European Union’s most important wheat buyer, is expected to sharply reduce imports in the 2026/27 season following a strong recovery in its domestic harvest. The shift is set to leave EU exporters facing a significant market gap with limited alternative destinations.

According to US government forecasts, Morocco’s total wheat imports could fall by nearly half in the MY 2026/27, which begins in July. The country has already suspended imports of soft wheat for June and July as the harvest progresses.

The decline follows several years of severe drought, which had made Morocco heavily dependent on foreign grain supplies. During that period, the country became a cornerstone buyer for European wheat exporters, absorbing large volumes of EU shipments.

France is among the most exposed EU suppliers, as it remains locked out of the Algerian market due to diplomatic tensions, faces weak demand from China, and has lost ground to Romania as the EU’s leading wheat exporter. At the same time, competition from Black Sea origins continues to pressure EU wheat prices and export competitiveness.

Analysts expect Russia and Ukraine to enter the 2026/27 season with abundant harvests, strengthening their ability to undercut EU prices in North Africa and the Middle East. As a result, European exporters are likely to shift their focus toward West Africa, which, alongside Morocco, remains one of the few key growth markets for EU grain shipments.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, Morocco, export, EU, prices