EU sugar imports could rise by 70% as production drops sharply

EU sugar production in 2026/27 is forecast at 13.4 mln tons, down 3.2 mln tons from the previous season, according to the European Commission.

Beginning stocks for the new season are projected at 3.1 mln tons, up 700 thsd tons year-on-year. However, higher stocks will not be sufficient to offset the significant decline in domestic sugar production.

As a result, EU sugar imports in 2026/27 could increase by around 70%, from 880 thsd tons to 1.5 mln tons. The bloc will therefore need to rely more heavily on external supplies to meet domestic demand.

At the same time, EU sugar exports are expected to fall sharply. Shipments to foreign markets could decline by 63%, from 1.6 mln tons to just 600 thsd tons.

The decline in production is therefore expected to significantly reshape the EU sugar trade balance, with the bloc shifting from substantial exports toward much greater reliance on imports.