EU soybean production to fall 20% to 2.4 mln tons in 2026

Soybean production in the European Union is expected to decline by approximately 20% year-on-year to 2.4 mln tons in 2026. According to a new report by Donau Soja, the main factors behind the lower harvest include prolonged periods of heat, drought and reduced planting areas across most European countries. The average soybean yield in the EU is estimated at 2.24 tons per hectare, approximately 15% below the five-year average.

Italy remains the largest soybean producer in the EU, with output expected at around 900 thsd tons, down 15% from the previous year. In Austria, production could decline by 36% to 180 thsd tons. Meanwhile, Poland and Germany are showing the opposite trend. Poland could become the EU’s third-largest soybean producer, with output reaching 264 thsd tons, more than 15% above last year’s level. Germany’s soybean harvest is forecast to increase by 2.4% to 134 thsd tons.

In Ukraine, which remains one of Europe’s key suppliers of non-GM soybeans, production in 2026 is estimated at 4.4 mln tons, down 10% year-on-year. Unfavorable weather conditions and lower production have been accompanied by weaker export activity. In particular, Ukraine exported only around 27 thsd tons of soybeans in September, approximately one-third of the volume shipped during the same month in 2025.

The smaller harvest is expected to increase the European Union’s dependence on soybean imports. According to Donau Soja, the EU’s soybean self-sufficiency rate could decline to approximately 6% in 2026/27, compared with 8% in 2025/26. This means that most of the European market’s demand will continue to be met by imported supplies. At the same time, production growth in Poland and Germany indicates potential for expanding soybean cultivation within the EU.

Donau Soja CEO Aurélie Tournan emphasized that the EU’s low level of soybean self-sufficiency creates vulnerabilities in Europe’s food system. In her view, increasing domestic production requires political support, investment and the development of regional supply chains, from farmers and processors to feed and food manufacturers. Expanding European soybean production would help reduce import dependence and strengthen the agricultural sector’s resilience to external risks.

Tags: crop forecast, EU, soybean