EU reduced the forecast for sunseed, but increased the estimate for the rapeseed harvest

Strategie Grains has raised its rapeseed forecast to 19 million tonnes, but expects lower sunseed production at 10.4 million tonnes.

The European oilseed market is entering the new 2025/26 agricultural season with mixed expectations. According to the analytics company Strategie Grains, the rapeseed production forecast in the EU has been raised from 18.74 million to 19 million tonnes, while the sunseed harvest estimate has been lowered to 10.4 million tonnes.

Experts clarified that the increased rapeseed forecast is due to the expansion of planted areas in key producing countries—Romania and Poland. According to updated estimates, the rapeseed harvest in the EU could exceed the current season’s level by 13%.

“Currently, rapeseed crops are successfully weathering the mild winter weather, and agrometeorological conditions are generally conducive to good plant development,” the company’s analysts noted.

At the same time, Strategie Grains raised its rapeseed stock estimate for the end of June 2025, reflecting lower demand and lower import volumes. Despite this, the market remains tight, the report states.

The consulting group also improved its forecast for soybean production in the EU, increasing it by 100,000 tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes. This will allow the harvest to exceed 3 million tonnes for the first time, marking a historic high for the region.

In the vegetable oil market, analysts expect the current season’s tight situation to persist into next year, particularly in the rapeseed, soybean, and palm oil segments. Only sunflower oil is projected to show a surplus, which experts attribute to the sector’s declining competitiveness.

“EU sunseed and rapeseed prices retain potential for modest growth in the 2024/25 season, as raw material and oil balances remain quite tight,” concluded Strategy Grains.

Tags: EU, soybean, sunseed, crop forecast