EU pig production expected to decline slightly in 2024

According the most recent EU short-term outlook report, EU pig meat production is recovering in some EU countries indicating a mixed trend for the sector, but overall, EU pig meat production is expected to slightly decrease by 0.5% in 2024, and 0.2% in 2025.

Lower demand from China could slow down EU exports by -2.5% in 2024. For 2025 a further decrease of 2% year-on-year is foreseen.

In the first half of 2024, EU pig meat production went up by 1.7% year-on-year. The biggest increases were recorded in Poland with 77 000 t (+9%), in Hungary with 18 000 t (+8.3%) and in Germany with 18 000 t (+0.9%), although production declined in Spain by 5 000 t (0.2%).

In the same period, fewer animals have been slaughtered in Denmark, but average carcass weights increased (+17 000 t, +2.5% year-on-year).

The increase in EU supply combined with limited demand led to a decline in domestic prices from May 2024, even though the average quotation remained significantly above the 5-year average. As both feed and piglet prices decreased, margins remained reasonably positive in the first half of the year. African swine fever outbreaks remain a risk for production.

Overall, a production decrease of 0.5% is expected for 2024 and a further drop by another 0.2% for 2025 year-on-year. Consumption has been stable so far in 2024, without the usual increase in the summer months. EU per capita consumption is expected to decrease further to 30.9 kg by year end (-0.4% year-on-year). For 2025, EU per capita consumption is expected to stabilize at 30.9 kg year-on-year.

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Tags: pig meat, demand, Denmark, China, supply, exports, EU, Poland, Spain, Production, Germany, Hungary