EU milk supply proves more resilient to drought than expected

EU milk supplies during the summer were stronger than expected despite drought conditions in several regions, according to Ornua’s September market report. The strongest performance was seen in Germany and France, although the full impact of adverse weather may not be felt for several months.

EU milk collections rose by around 2.2% year on year in July after increasing by 2.3% in June. July collections increased by 5.7% in Germany and by 2.6% in the Netherlands, while France recorded only a 0.3% decline.

Ireland has been more heavily affected by drought, with milk production falling by 3.4% in June and by a further 2.2% in July. Similar pressure has been seen in the UK. At the same time, Ornua raised its forecast for European milk supply growth in 2026 to 1.7%.

Demand has also exceeded expectations, particularly in export markets, with volumes up around 9% year to date. This is supporting the market in the short term, although strong milk flows from the US and New Zealand are limiting the potential for significant price growth through the end of the year.

Ornua expects EU milk production growth to gradually slow, while the effects of drought and weather-related risks could become more pronounced in early 2027. Until then, global supply is likely to remain sufficient to limit any sharp increase in dairy prices.

Tags: weather conditions, EU, Milk, drought