EU cuts corn crop forecast again, with Romania among few positive exceptions

The European Commission has cut its forecast for EU corn production in the 2026/27 season by another 1.8 mln tons to 50.1 mln tons. This would be the lowest level in 19 years, with the latest downgrade driven by severe drought and heatwaves that damaged crops across several key producing countries during the summer.

The situation is particularly difficult in France, where prolonged heat and a lack of rainfall have significantly worsened corn crop conditions. Some estimates suggest that the French harvest could fall by almost half. Adverse weather has also affected crops in Germany, Italy, Hungary and other parts of Central Europe.

At the same time, Romania has emerged as one of the few positive exceptions this season. Crop conditions there are better than in many other major EU producers, while the harvest outlook in Romania and Poland remains relatively favorable. Their stronger production could partly offset substantial losses in western and central Europe.

However, even better harvests in Romania and Poland will not be enough to compensate for the overall decline in EU production. Independent analysts are even more pessimistic than the European Commission, with Argus forecasting the EU corn crop at just 46.9 mln tons, which would be the lowest level this century.

The sharp decline in domestic production is expected to increase the EU’s dependence on imported corn in 2026/27. Against the backdrop of tighter supplies, Romania’s position as one of the few producers with relatively favorable crop prospects could strengthen its role in intra-EU grain trade.

Tags: corn, Romania, EU, forecast