EU corn production could fall to its lowest level since 1990 — Expana

Commodity market analytics firm Expana has lowered its forecast for European Union corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year to 44.9 mln tons, compared with its September estimate of 46.2 mln tons. The downward revision reflects prolonged summer droughts and heatwaves that significantly damaged crop prospects. According to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), if realized, the forecast would mark the EU’s lowest corn production level since 1990.

The smaller harvest is already prompting analysts to revise their outlook for domestic corn consumption. According to Expana, EU corn use in animal feed could decline by 8 mln tons, or 13.5%, in 2026/27 compared with the five-year average. The shortage of domestically produced grain is expected to increase European livestock producers’ dependence on imported grain and alternative feed ingredients.

Against the backdrop of declining production, the EU will remain heavily reliant on corn imports. Ukraine, the United States and Brazil remain key external suppliers, although disruptions to Black Sea shipping are complicating Ukrainian grain deliveries. Expana forecasts that even with supplies available from the US and Brazil, the EU may still need around 11 mln tons of Ukrainian corn.

For comparison, the EU imported 9.1 mln tons of corn from Ukraine last season. This means potential demand for Ukrainian supplies could increase by almost 2 mln tons. However, meeting this demand will depend on Ukraine’s export logistics capacity, which remains constrained by disruptions to Black Sea transportation. This creates additional uncertainty for the European feedgrain market.

As for wheat, Expana kept its EU production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year unchanged at 126.1 mln tons. This is 8% below the previous season’s level. The EU is therefore facing lower production of both major cereal crops, potentially intensifying competition for imported grain and increasing the importance of reliable supplies from external markets, particularly Ukraine.

Tags: harvest, corn, EU