EU corn imports to rise by nearly 30% amid falling global prices

The European Union could increase corn imports by nearly 30% in the MY 2026/27 due to a decline in domestic production. According to USDA forecasts cited by FranceAgriMer, imports are expected to rise to 25 mln tons from 19.3 mln tons in the previous season. Meanwhile, EU corn exports could fall by 37% to 1.5 mln tons. As reported by World Grain, Europe’s growing import requirements come amid a broader decline in global grain prices following their September peak.

According to USDA estimates, corn production in Europe could fall to its lowest level since 1994 this season. The smaller harvest is increasing the European market’s dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly countries in North and South America and the Black Sea region. Rising imports are creating additional opportunities for exporters, although competition among suppliers is intensifying due to ample grain supplies on the global market.

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), global corn prices reached their highest level in three years in late September before declining in the following weeks. By mid-October, the global corn price index had fallen by 6%, while nearby US corn futures had lost around 10% over the month. The main factors were unexpectedly high US grain stocks and an upward revision to the country’s corn production forecast.

In particular, USDA raised its estimate of US corn production in 2026/27 to 407.3 mln tons following an improved yield forecast. This could become the second-largest corn harvest in the country’s history. Additional pressure on prices came from quarterly corn stocks, which were 35% higher than a year earlier. Following the release of the forecast on October 9, US corn futures fell sharply despite concerns about excessive moisture during harvesting and increasing crop disease pressure.

Prices declined across the major corn export markets. According to IGC estimates, US corn quotations on an FOB Gulf basis fell by $23/t to $229/t, Argentine corn at Up River ports declined by $11/t to $213/t, while Brazilian corn at Paranaguá dropped by $14/t to $225/t. Meanwhile, strong export demand continues to support the market, particularly in Argentina, where shipments are running at a record pace this season. Future price movements will depend on actual harvest volumes, global trade flows and growing import demand from the EU.

Tags: corn, export, EU, prices