EU corn crop may fall to a 20-year low, boosting import demand

EU corn production in 2026/27 is forecast to fall to 50.2 mln tons, which would be the lowest level in nearly two decades. The deteriorating crop outlook is primarily attributed to hot and dry weather that has negatively affected crops across several major producing countries.

Against the backdrop of lower domestic production, USDA raised its forecast for EU corn imports by 1 mln tons to 23.5 mln tons. At the same time, EU corn exports are projected at just 1.6 mln tons, increasing the bloc’s dependence on external suppliers.

However, covering the shortfall from traditional sources could prove more difficult this season. Ukraine remains one of the EU’s key corn suppliers, but Black Sea exports have been disrupted by intensified attacks on port infrastructure and shipping. In August, USDA lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026/27 corn exports by 1 mln tons to 22 mln tons.

Competition from Brazil is also expected to be more limited. Despite a large crop, USDA cut its forecast for Brazilian corn exports by 1 mln tons to 43 mln tons due to stronger domestic demand, including from the biofuel sector. Against this backdrop, the EU has recently increased purchases of U.S. corn.

The United States could become one of the main beneficiaries of reduced competition from other exporters. USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn exports in 2026/27 by 2 mln tons to 83 mln tons, citing weaker competition in the global market. The smaller EU crop combined with Black Sea logistics disruptions could therefore further shift global corn trade flows toward U.S. suppliers.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Brazil, EU, USA, imports