Ethiopia aims to be grain self-sufficient, but wheat imports remain critical
Despite domestic production increasing to 6.5 million tons, demand from processors and the food industry exceeds supply.
According to the USDA FAS report, moderate growth in wheat production (to 6.5 million tons) and corn (to 10.3 million tons) is projected for the 2025-26 season. However, wheat demand is estimated at 7.82 million tons, maintaining dependence on imports.
Key Market Trends:
- Irrigation: Irrigated wheat acreage has increased from 3,500 hectares in 2011 to 2.7 million hectares this season.
- Prices: Domestic grain prices in Ethiopia remain higher than global prices due to high logistics and input costs.
- Crushing: There are approximately 500 mills operating in the country, but their utilization is often below 50% due to a lack of working capital and unstable supplies.
- Tariffs: A 25% duty on wheat flour imports has been introduced to support local millers.
Wheat imports in the 2025-26 season are expected to decline by 24% to 1.3 million tons due to a shortage of foreign currency and new import duties.
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