Ending stocks of soybean in Brazil are revised downward due to lower production

The recent cut in the Safras & Mercado estimate for Brazilian soybean production brought little change in the supply and demand picture. But ending stocks have been cut and are likely to be 40% below last season’s figure.

Brazil’s soybean exports should total 94 mln tons in 2024, against 101.86 mln in 2023. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand projection, released by Safras & Mercado. In the previous report, released in February, the projection was also 94 mln.

Safras indicates crushing at 54.3 mln tons in 2024 and 53.74 mln tons in 2023, with an increase of 1% between one season and the next. There was no change in the forecast compared to February.

Safras indicates imports of 650 thousand tons in 2024, against 181 thousand tons in 2023.

For the 2024 season, the total supply of soybeans must decrease by 6%, reaching 154.317 mln tons. Total demand is projected by Safras at 151.3 mln tons, falling 5% from the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks are expected to fall by 40%, from 5.066 to 3.017 mln tons.

Safras estimates soymeal production at 41.68 mln tons in 2024, up 1%. Exports are expected to fall 7% to 21 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.5 mln, increasing 3%. Stocks are expected to rise 81% to 4.88 mln tons.

Soyoil production is expected to remain practically stable at 10.96 mln tons. Brazil must export 1.5 mln tons, down 36%. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 10% to 9.5 mln tons. Use for biodiesel should increase by 18% to 5.2 mln tons. The stocks are forecast to fall 4% to 535 thousand tons.

Tags: stocks, supply, demand, exports, Brazil, estimate, soybeans, ending stocks, Production, forecast, imports