El Niño threatens South Africa’s summer grain harvest
The expected strengthening of El Niño could worsen the outlook for South Africa’s summer grain harvest due to the risk of reduced rainfall during the new season. However, starting conditions remain better than during the severe 2014–2016 drought.
Following the favourable 2025/26 season, the country still has ample food supplies, so no immediate shortage risks are expected. Food inflation stood at just 0.7% in August 2026, while grains, fruits and vegetables remained in deflation.
For growers, the main risk is the possible intensification of dry weather during key stages of crop development. At the same time, better soil moisture carried over from the previous season could support crops during the early stages of growth.
The agricultural sector is also supported by high water reserves, with major dams more than 80% full. This is particularly important for commercial fruit and vegetable production, which relies heavily on irrigation.
El Niño therefore remains the key weather risk for South Africa’s new summer grain crop, although strong carryover supplies and better moisture conditions reduce the likelihood of a repeat of the 2014–2016 drought scenario.
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