El Niño 2026 could become the strongest on record with a 63% probability

A powerful El Niño has officially formed in the Pacific Ocean. Meteorologists warn that this phenomenon could reach historic strength and intensify extreme weather events around the world, The Independent reports.

“The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that by late autumn and early winter, there is a 63% probability that the phenomenon will become so strong that it will rank among the most powerful El Niño events on record since observations began in 1950,” the publication notes.

According to forecasts, this event could match or even surpass the record El Niño of 1997, which caused billions of dollars in damage due to heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and wildfires. The natural warming cycle is expected to further increase global temperatures and may lead to a significant intensification of extreme weather events worldwide.

What to expect in Ukraine and globally:

The impact of weather conditions varies by region. El Niño often reduces, but does not eliminate, Atlantic hurricane activity, while increasing it in the Pacific—placing Hawaii and other islands at greater risk. In contrast, the drought-prone Middle East may benefit from increased precipitation. In addition:

• South America — heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas, along with extremely hot summers;
• Northeastern Africa — sharp weather fluctuations, ranging from severe drought to dangerously heavy rains;
• United States — more intense storms with heavy precipitation in the southern regions;
• India — severe heatwaves;
• Australia — droughts, wildfires, and extreme heat.

Although El Niño forms in the Pacific Ocean, it can also affect Ukraine due to global atmospheric instability. The main consequence would be an abnormal intensification of heat: summer months could bring prolonged and exhausting heatwaves with temperatures above +35°C to +40°C, while winters are expected to become milder, warmer, and marked by a lack of stable snow cover.

Tags: Эль-Ниньо