Egypt’s wheat production, imports to rise

Egypt, with a growing population of 108 million, requires 20 million tonnes of wheat annually to meet a steadily increasing demand, and production covers only about half of its needs, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Sept. 22 report updating wheat, corn and rice, the FAS projected Egypt to harvest a slightly larger wheat crop at 9.2 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 9 million tonnes in the previous season. Imports are seen growing in the same manner to 12.7 million tonnes, up from 12.5 million tonnes.

In Egypt, wheat typically is planted in November and harvested in April. The amount of land planted depends on the government’s procurement prices, the FAS said, and high government procurement prices have incentivized farmers to grow more wheat and sell it to government entities.

With only 50% to 55% of wheat needs covered by domestic production and the requirements of a robust subsidy program that ensures affordable bread for most of the population, Egypt remains among the world’s top importers of the grain, the FAS noted.

“The country is highly price-sensitive and depends heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat due to its competitive pricing, lower freight costs, and faster delivery to Egyptian ports compared to other suppliers,” the FAS said.

During the past three years, private industry has increased its market share of wheat imports, as it has increased its production of flour exports to regional markets and distributed to private bakeries and cafes producing high-quality products.

Estimated wheat flour exports in 2025-26 amount to 1 million tonnes, down 23% from the FAS estimate of 1.3 million tonnes in 2024-25.

“In the past few years, Egypt has continued to increase its position as a key supplier of wheat flour to many African and Middle Eastern countries, especially in countries that have faced conflicts (such as Gaza and Sudan) and as a result, impacted their production capacities,” the FAS said.

The reduction in exports is derived from stricter government export requirements meant to balance domestic market needs with export volumes of wheat flour and recovering milling capacity in Sudan.

Estimated 2025-26 (October-September) corn production is 6.7 million tonnes, down from an earlier FAS estimate by almost 7.6%. The decrease in production is from excessive heat during the growing season and high insect pressure (mainly the fall army worm) causing lower kernel counts and reduced yield throughout the region from July to August.

Consumption of corn continues to grow, up 4.4% year on year to 16.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, mirroring increased demand from the poultry sector, which is the major driver of corn and feed demand in Egypt. To supply domestic needs, Egypt is projected to import 9.5 million tonnes, up 9%.

Egypt’s yellow corn production covers less than 30% of its feed demand, while imports supplement the rest of the industry. Egypt’s top imports of corn primarily originate from Brazil, Ukraine and Argentina.

“Moreover, the positive outlook in feed consumption is reinforced by new government licenses for livestock and poultry projects aimed at increasing local production and reducing imports,” the FAS said.

The FAS estimates 2025-26 milled rice production at 4.2 million tonnes, up 7.7% from an earlier production figure and higher than the 3.9 million tonnes harvested in 2024-25. The increase is due to much lower cost of rice production versus other summer crops, such as corn or cotton, which prompted farmers to increase crop area beyond the allotted rice cultivated area set by Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.

Rice consumption and residual is forecast at 4 million tonnes in 2025-26, unchanged from 2024-25, with imports of 140,000 tonnes helping meet demand.

Tags: exports, Egypt, corn, Production, wheat, flour, imports, demand, milled rice