EFSA: HPAI expected to persist in Europe until winter ends

In the closing months of 2025, Europe has witnessed a marked increase in cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) among wild birds, leading to widespread outbreaks in poultry farms and a rise in detections among carnivorous mammals.

Despite the ongoing spread within animal populations, the risk to the general public remains low.

Between 6 September and 28 November 2025, 442 outbreaks of HPAI were reported in domestic birds and 2,454 outbreaks in wild birds across 29 European countries, according to the latest quarterly report by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and the European Union reference laboratory (EURL).

As previously reported by EFSA, the number of wild birds affected by HPAI has reached its highest level for this period since 2016. Waterfowl – including ducks, geese and swans – have been particularly impacted, alongside extensive mortality events in common cranes. Almost all detections in Europe are linked to a newly-introduced variant of a certain HPAI A(H5N1) genotype that has circulated in the region previously.

The sharp rise in cases may be due to a lack of pre-existing immunity in wild bird populations or increased transmissibility of the circulating variant. Scientists anticipate sustained high levels of virus circulation in wild birds in the coming weeks, with a likely decline towards the end of winter.

The widespread outbreaks on farms across Europe have primarily resulted from introductions by wild birds, mainly through indirect contact. In particular, turkeys have been affected, and there has been an increase in detections among vaccinated ducks. Factors contributing to the rise in cases include transmission from wild birds, infection pressure from highly contaminated environments near poultry establishments, and certain weather conditions such as humidity.

Experts strongly recommend housing domestic birds in areas where HPAI virus is circulating in wild birds or where wild bird mass mortality events have been reported. Strict biosecurity and enhanced surveillance are essential to detect new outbreaks early and reduce risks to animal health.

Tags: swans, Europe, poultry farms, wild birds, ducks, outbreaks, highly pathogenic avian influenza, geese, Turkeys