Drought prompts lower EU sunseed crop forecast

Analytical agency Expana has lowered its forecast for the European Union’s 2026/27 sunseed crop to 9.7 mln tons, down 5% from its previous estimate. Despite the downgrade, production is still expected to be 15% higher than last season.

The revision reflects weaker yield expectations caused by prolonged heat and a lack of rainfall. According to the July bulletin from the European Commission’s MARS monitoring service, the average sunflower yield across the EU is now forecast at 1.94 t/ha, down 7% from the June outlook. The estimate remains 4% above last year’s level but is still 2% below the five-year average.

Weather forecasts indicate that hot and dry conditions will persist across Western Europe, increasing the risk of further yield losses. Crops in Spain, Portugal and France have been particularly affected, as prolonged summer heat and limited rainfall depleted topsoil moisture after favourable planting conditions in spring, putting additional stress on sunflower and corn crops.

Analysts also note that France is among the countries where sunflower yield potential has deteriorated the most. If dry weather persists, sunflower production estimates for Western Europe could face further downward revisions.

Tags: EU, France, sunseed, crop forecast