Drought persists in US soft wheat regions

Despite mid-January precipitation in the Southern Plains, drought conditions continue to affect several US wheat-growing areas, particularly regions producing soft winter wheat. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that as of Jan. 13, 41% of the dormant winter wheat crop was in drought, slightly below the previous week but nearly double the level seen a year earlier.

Conditions vary across key hard red winter wheat states. In Kansas, the nation’s top producer, drought is largely confined to the far southeastern corner, while central and western areas have seen improved soil moisture. However, Oklahoma and Montana continue to report significant drought coverage, including areas of severe and extreme drought.

In Oklahoma, two large south-central regions remain in extreme drought, except for the Panhandle, which has avoided dry conditions. In Montana, moisture conditions are favorable in the northeast and south, but north-central parts of the state are experiencing severe to extreme drought, affecting both winter wheat and areas typically planted to spring wheat.

The most challenging conditions are in soft winter wheat regions. Northeastern Ohio, central Indiana and large parts of Illinois are in extreme drought, surrounded by areas of severe and moderate drought. Nearly all of Illinois is classified as abnormally dry or in drought, while Michigan and Kentucky are largely drought-free.

According to USDA, drought-affected soft winter wheat areas reach 85% in Illinois, 83% in Tennessee, 96% in Arkansas, and 100% in Georgia and North Carolina. Analysts warn that persistent dry weather could significantly impact yield potential and grain quality in the 2026 season.

Tags: drought, USA, crop condition