Drought cuts barley yields in Poland as prices fall to 20-year lows

Polish farmers have begun harvesting winter barley, but the first results are disappointing. Drought has reduced yields by around 2 tons per hectare in many regions, while purchase prices have dropped to levels that farmers say have not been seen in more than 20 years.

Harvesting is already underway in Lower Silesia, Opole, Lubusz and southern Greater Poland. Most fields are yielding between 4 and 6.5 tons/ha, although some areas are producing less than 3 tons/ha. Fields with better soils and higher moisture retention are reporting yields of 6.6–9 tons/ha, but such results remain the exception.

According to Poland’s Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation (IUNG), drought affected 15% of winter cereal acreage and 22% of spring cereal acreage between April 1 and May 31. The greatest losses occurred in fields where winter and spring soil moisture reserves were depleted early, reducing grain filling.

Purchase prices for winter barley currently range from PLN 520 to 650 per ton (US$136–171/t). Buyers near Głogówek are offering just PLN 520/t (US$136/t), while prices are around PLN 590/t (US$155/t) near Prudnik and PLN 600/t (US$157/t) in eastern Mazovia. The average price of milling barley in late June–early July was PLN 685/t (US$180/t), while feed barley averaged PLN 692/t (US$182/t), although both prices declined sharply over the past week.

Analysts do not expect a significant recovery in grain prices in the coming months due to ample global grain supplies, although weather risks and developments in the Middle East could increase market volatility. According to the Greater Poland Agricultural Chamber, the cost of producing one hectare of spring barley reaches PLN 6,527/ha (US$1,713/ha), while revenue averages only PLN 5,140/ha (US$1,349/ha), leaving farmers with a loss of about PLN 1,387/ha (US$364/ha).