Drought could cut Australia’s canola crop by 1 mln tons

German analysts at Oil World forecast Australia’s 2026/27 canola production at 6.7 mln tons, down 1 mln tons from the previous season. Despite an expected increase of around 200 thsd hectares in planted area, crop prospects remain under pressure from adverse weather conditions.

According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall are expected across most canola-growing regions over the next three months. The highest weather risks are forecast for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, eastern South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia.

Oil World warns that if drought conditions intensify, average canola yields could fall below the projected 1.7 tons/ha. During the severe El Niño event in 2015, Australia’s average canola yield dropped to below 1.3 tons/ha, leading to a significant decline in production.

The impact of adverse weather could be partly offset by improved farming technologies and the wider adoption of genetically modified canola varieties with greater drought tolerance.

Against the backdrop of a smaller crop, Oil World expects Australia’s canola exports to decline to 5.4 mln tons or less in the 2026/27 season, the lowest level in many years, compared with an estimated 5.8 mln tons in the current season.

Tags: drought, rapeseed, crop forecast, Australia