Do not ship soy, but crush. Could 2025/26 be a turning point for Ukrainian soybeans?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

According to official statistics, as of 1 January 2026, Ukraine almost finished soybean harvesting of 2,043.5 K ha, it is 99% of the forecast area of 2,062.8 K ha. Average yield is 2.37 mt/ha, total crop of 4.85 M mt.

UkrAgroConsult SB area and crop forecast is higher vs. the above figures as the usual upward revision of sown areas and yields are expected later in the 2025/26 season.

• sown areas – down 14% y/y
• yield – down 5%
• crop – down 19%

After two years of SB expansion in 2023-2024, farmers clearly cooled off in 2025 because of painfully low prices in the previous season. This is not short time move, but a cyclical margin correction after an expansion.

A 10% export duty on SB was introduced in early Sep 2025 with exports dropped to 77.2 K mt, the lowest Sep in four seasons. However, this was not seasonal trend but instant market reaction.

Even with the Dec rebound of around 350 K mt (almost at Dec 2024 level), the first four months of the 2025/26 season (Sep-Dec) SB exports were less than 1.0 M mt (down 42% y/y). For the full season, the export decline is currently expected at around 37%.

SB market trends in Jan-March 2026 will clarify whether the export duty forced the market to modernize by shifting towards crushing, or whether this was just a one-season movement caused by policy and expensive logistics.

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Tags: export, soybean, duties, Ukraine