Despite being below average, Brazilian soybean trade approaches 100 mln tons

Soybeans resume their upward movement on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), driven mainly by expectations surrounding the USDA’s May report, which will provide relevant updates on the new season, besides renewed attention on trade tensions, which remain without a concrete resolution.

Even on an undefined tariff scenario — which makes US soybeans uncompetitive against Chinese soybeans in the second half of the year — Chicago has shown buying strength in recent days. This indicates that part of the market anticipates some more structural adjustment in future supply and demand, even with China facing high costs to buy soybeans from the United States during the arrival of the US crop.

In terms of climate, there are no relevant concerns on the radar. Weather maps remain favorable in the short, medium and long term, which reinforces the prospect of good conditions for crop development.

The satisfactory pace of the US planting reinforces this scenario and increases the perception that given the uncertainties about external demand — especially from China — US growers may consider a significant reduction in the area planted for the 2025/26 season. This move would be a response to the fear of a sudden slowdown in US exports this year, which could negatively impact the final supply and demand balance, putting pressure on carryover stocks for the new crop and, consequently, prices in Chicago.

Currently, the US is starting with quite comfortable stock levels, and there are no concrete signs that the weather will be a limiting factor now. The main focus remains on Chinese purchases starting in October, when the new US crop effectively enters the market.

Brazilian soybean sales have slowed down recently, but April was marked by strong movements, especially in the first half of the month, when premiums were more valuable and growers more active in the market.

According to data from Safras & Mercado, the current crop sales are around 57%, below the 64.6% registered in the same period in 2024 and also the historical average of 70.3%. However, considering this is a supercrop, the absolute volume traded is significant: almost 98 mln tons of soybeans have already been traded — a significant number, especially from the export perspective.

Regarding the early crop (2024/25), the pace is also slower. Sales levels are estimated at 7.9%, below the 9.9% of the same period in 2024 and well below the historical average of 17.2%.

Tags: China, exports, prices, soybeans, US, crop, demand