Despite adjustments in the Brazilian soybean crop, ending stocks should remain comfortable

Last week was marked by firm prices in the physical market despite volatility. At this time, premiums remain very high, supporting short-term indications. This situation is atypical, as we are in a seasonal period of crop arrival – a record cycle in Brazil – while logistical difficulties sustain the need for physical product for China.

There is still room for a negative price adjustment in the short term. China needs soybeans, but weekly US sales are within normal limits, which indicates that the increase in premiums does not necessarily reflect an increase in demand, but rather difficulties in placing the product in the Chinese market. Although scheduled shipments are high, estimated at around 16 mln tons for March thus far, just over 8 mln tons have actually been shipped – and we are already at the end of the month. This reinforces the perception of a stagnant logistic flow.

The price of a Brazilian ton is as high as that of a US ton, evidencing some distortion in the face of the large supply of soybeans coming from Brazil. This is essentially due to logistical issues, either due to internal issues or the delay in unloading at Chinese ports. Therefore, as the flow of shipments improves – which should occur in April – we are likely to see an adjustment in prices, whether via CBOT, premiums, or both.

Owing to the climate impacts in Rio Grande do Sul, Safras & Mercado revised its estimates for Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25. With this cut, ending stocks were also adjusted downward. However, even with more than 70% of the crop already reaped, Brazilian production is expected to be the largest in history, putting pressure on prices.

Total production is projected at 172.45 mln tons, an increase of 13.2% over the previous crop, which was 152.3 mln tons. The previous estimate was 174.88 mln tons. Acreage is expected to increase by 2.2%, totaling 47.47 mln hectares, compared to 46.45 mln in the 2023/24 season. Average productivity is also expected to increase, from 3,295 to 3,651 kilograms per hectare.

Tags: Market, China, Brazil, prices, soybeans, US, shipments