Deral Lowers Parana 2021/22 Corn Estimate to 14.5 Million Tons

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The safrinha corn harvest in the state of Parana in southern Brazil is expected to end with declining production. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported that 57% of the safrinha corn had been harvested as of earlier this week and yields have been declining as the harvest has progressed. Yields of the later planted corn continue to be below initial expectations.

Deral is estimating that the 2021/22 corn production in Parana will decline 10% from their prior estimate of 16 million tons to their current estimate of 14.5 million tons and it may move lower in future estimates.

The corn analysts for Deral, Edmar Gervasio, explained that some of the reduction may be due to dry weather and light frosts, but most of the lower yields are due to damage caused by corn leafhoppers that spread the virus associated with corn stunting. He indicated that the production estimate may move lower by the end of August after Deral has completed a statewide evaluation of the safrinha corn yields. The Institute of Rural Development in Parana (IDR) estimates that corn leafhoppers were responsible for 60% of the safrinha corn yield reduction in 2022.

Current corn prices in the state are in the range of R$ 70.00 per sack (approximately $6.25 per bushel), which is down 20% compared to last year. Most farmers will still be able to make a profit on their safrinha corn production, but they are concerned about the higher cost of production for their 2022/23 crop.

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