Delays in oil and meal exports increase pressure on sunflower seed prices in Ukraine

Sunflower seed purchase prices in Ukraine continue to decline due to a rapid increase in new-crop supplies and limited processing and export capacity. Over the past week, sunflower seed prices fell by another UAH 500/t to UAH 16,500–17,000/t including VAT, or $320–340/t excluding VAT, delivered to processing plants at a standard oil content of 48%.

Price pressure is intensifying as harvesting accelerates. As of October 12, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 7.44 mln tons of sunflower seed from 3.44 mln ha, or about 66% of the forecast area. The average yield stood at 2.16 t/ha. Meanwhile, continuous Russian drone attacks and prolonged air raid alerts are causing interruptions in the receiving and shipment of products at processing plants and ports. At some facilities, waiting times for sunflower seed deliveries have reached 7–12 days.

According to Stepan Kapshuk, CEO of the Ukroliyaprom association, delays in sunflower oil and meal exports are creating a risk of shutdowns at some oilseed processing plants. The association estimates that available storage capacity for finished products is sufficient for only 5–7 days of plant operations. During the first six days of October, just 28.24 thsd tons of vegetable oil were transported by rail for export, 17.3% below the September pace. Almost 97% of these volumes were shipped through western border crossings.

In the export market, bid prices for sunflower seed delivered to Bulgaria declined by €5/t to €475–480/t, or $530–535/t. Meanwhile, the reduction in Ukraine’s minimum export price for sunflower seed from $671/t to $389/t DAP could accelerate export licensing and customs clearance, supporting shipments to Bulgaria. In the sunflower oil market, Indian buyers are bidding $1,390–1,400/t CIF Mumbai, while bid prices for delivery to Turkey stand at $1,320–1,340/t. However, logistics difficulties are limiting Ukrainian exporters’ ability to benefit from international demand.

Road and rail logistics conditions could deteriorate further in the coming months, increasing pressure on domestic sunflower seed prices. With raw material stocks accumulating and sunflower oil and meal exports facing delays, some processing plants risk temporarily suspending operations.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, sunseed