Decline in Russian wheat prices accelerates

The decline in Russian wheat prices accelerated sharply last week, with the steepest losses recorded in the export-oriented southern regions. The market is under pressure from the arrival of the new crop and an almost complete lack of demand from exporters, whose operations are constrained by shipping disruptions and damage to port infrastructure.

According to ProZerno, prices fell most sharply in southern Russia. Class 4 wheat, the country’s main export-grade wheat, lost around $35/t in just one week, falling to about $121/t. Class 3 wheat declined by around $24/t, while Class 5 wheat lost about $29/t. Corn prices in the region also fell by almost $30/t.

Wheat prices declined in other Russian regions as well, although generally at a slower pace. Class 3 wheat lost around $23/t in central Russia, $17/t in the Volga region and about $14/t in the Black Earth region. Feed barley also recorded a significant decline, falling by around $29/t in central regions.

ProZerno attributed the accelerating price decline to the near absence of purchases by exporters, whose facilities are already filled with grain, while the new crop continues to enter the market. To stabilize prices, analysts are calling for urgent state grain purchasing interventions of at least 10 mln tons. The Russian Agriculture Ministry is currently considering purchases of only 1–3 mln tons.

A possible moratorium on grain export duties until the end of the year could also support the market, although its short-term impact is expected to be limited given the current low export volumes. ProZerno noted that exporters are barely purchasing grain at present, meaning the removal of duties could have a more significant effect only after export shipments recover. Analysts also argue that Russia should refrain from introducing its traditional grain export quota in the 2026/27 season.

Against the backdrop of falling domestic prices, market participants are calling for broader easing of export restrictions. ProZerno has proposed reviewing restrictions not only on grain but also on oilseeds and processed products, including sunflower oil and meal. However, the initiative currently being considered by the Russian Agriculture Ministry concerns a possible moratorium specifically on grain export duties.

Tags: wheat, restrictions, Russia, sunflower oil, barley, prices, oilseeds