Danube freight rates double as Russian attacks on Greater Odesa ports intensify

Barge freight rates from Ukraine’s Danube ports of Reni and Izmail to the Romanian port of Constanta have doubled since the beginning of July, reaching around $28/t as of Monday, July 20. According to ASAP Agri lead vegetable oil market analyst Kateryna Mudriian, the sharp increase has been driven by two factors: critically low water levels on the Danube and a surge in cargo volumes following intensified Russian attacks on the ports of Greater Odesa.

“The situation with Danube barges is more complicated than it appears. Water levels have fallen to historic lows and continue to decline, leaving barges significantly underloaded. As a result, indicative freight rates are only approximate, since the final cost depends on the available draft, actual cargo volume, vessel type and cargo,” said Taras Panasiuk, co-owner and head of freight brokerage at Atria Brokers.

Unlike the 2022 and 2023 seasons, this year the Danube route is also facing an increased risk of Russian attacks on barges, limiting the number of available vessels. If more exporters divert cargoes to the Danube, shipowners may need at least two weeks to reposition additional barges, while persistently low water levels are expected to continue restricting carrying capacity.

“Market participants confirm that the maximum available draft at Cernavodă — one of the most challenging navigation sections on the Danube — is currently around 2 meters and may be even lower further downstream toward Constanta. Similar draft restrictions were recorded during the same period last year. Depending on barge design, vessels are currently losing around 30–60% of their carrying capacity,” said ASAP Agri freight analyst Pavlo Lysenko.

Official data also point to further deterioration in navigation conditions. According to Romania’s Lower Danube River Administration, the water level at the Cernavodă hydrological station fell by another 4 cm on July 22 and is forecast to decline by an additional 5 cm in the coming days. Meanwhile, Romania’s National Administration “Romanian Waters” reported that Danube discharge at the Romanian border dropped to 1,700 cubic meters per second over the weekend, well below the July average of 4,700 cubic meters per second. Water levels in Romania are now at their lowest since 1996.

Tags: Ukraine, export, freight rates, Danube ports