Current El Niño weaker than previous episodes, but key risks for agriculture still ahead

The current strong El Niño has so far had a significantly smaller impact on global weather than similar events in 1982, 1997 and 2015. Despite warnings from meteorological agencies about a possible “super El Niño,” weather anomalies across many regions have been less destructive than initially feared. However, experts stress that it is still too early to draw final conclusions, as the event is expected to peak only in November or early December.

One reason for the relatively limited impact has been high soil moisture reserves across many tropical and subtropical regions as they entered the current ENSO phase following the previous La Niña. Frequent and abundant rainfall throughout 2025 and early 2026 provided an important moisture buffer for crops, meaning that the sharp expansion of drought conditions initially expected has so far failed to materialize.

In Europe, experts do not directly link this year’s heat and drought to El Niño. Moisture deficits began developing as early as summer 2025, while previous strong El Niño episodes often brought above-normal summer rainfall to France, Spain and parts of the UK. Eastern Europe is currently becoming drier, while wetter conditions are expected to develop across western parts of the continent in September.

In Asia, the negative impact has also been considerably weaker so far than during the El Niño events of 1982, 1997 and 2015. The most notable moisture deficit is currently concentrated in Indonesia, while crop conditions across South and Southeast Asia generally remain better than during previous strong episodes. India is experiencing a relatively favorable monsoon season, although cumulative rainfall since June 1 is around 13% below normal.

The main risks for agriculture could emerge during autumn and winter. India’s monsoon usually begins to weaken in the second half of September, and parts of India and Pakistan could enter the dry season with insufficient soil moisture and limited irrigation water supplies. Drought risks also remain for Indonesia and northeastern and central-eastern Australia. Even after El Niño reaches its peak, its influence on weather patterns could persist for several more months.

Scientists are also considering a hypothesis that the impact of strong El Niño events may be changing as the world’s oceans and atmosphere become warmer. Warmer oceans could potentially reduce temperature contrasts across the tropical Pacific, while higher atmospheric moisture levels can contribute to heavier rainfall and slow soil drying between rain events. However, this hypothesis has yet to be sufficiently confirmed, making the coming months critical for assessing the actual impact of the current El Niño on global agriculture.