Corn prices in Ukraine remain stable in anticipation of increased demand from the EU

The global corn market is under increasing weather pressure as the critical period for corn plantings approaches, when harvest potential is building. Heatwaves in the EU, particularly in France, have already pushed prices in Paris to a 2-year high, while favorable weather in the US is pushing down near-term prices in Chicago.

Over the past seven days on the Euronext exchange in Paris, August corn futures rose by 5.8% to the highest level since June 2024 – €233.75/t or $266.5/t (+11.6% in two weeks), and November corn futures rose by 10.9% to €225.5/t.

Hot and dry weather in France, Poland, Romania and Hungary (the largest corn producers in the EU) will reduce the harvest and increase the need for imports, especially from Ukraine, although demand prices have not changed so far.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France, between June 15 and 22, the number of corn crops in good and excellent condition decreased from 84% to 76%, and the condition of the crops will deteriorate even further during the week of heat.

The US corn belt has been hit by a heat wave of 30-35 degrees, but significant precipitation of 20-60 mm is forecast from Thursday. This led to a decrease in the nearest July corn futures in Chicago yesterday by 2.7% to $158.3/t (-10.4% for the month), and December corn futures by 2.7% to $169.3/t (-10% for the month).

According to NASS Crop Progress, in the US, between June 21 and 28, the number of corn crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 1% to 67%, while last year it was 73%.

In Brazil, second-crop corn has already been harvested on 22% of the area in the Central-South region, according to AgRural, and harvest forecasts are increasing due to rainfall. Agroconsult in June raised its forecast for Brazilian corn production in the 2025/26 MY from 140.5 to 144.1 million tons, which would be lower than the record 152.3 million tons harvested last year but would exceed the USDA’s June forecast of 138 million tons.

According to the BAGE exchange, corn has been harvested on 51.2% of the area in Argentina, compared to 49.6% last year and 46.5% on average over the past 5 years. Threshing confirms a high harvest of 62-64 million tons.

In Ukraine, the weather is generally favorable for corn crops, but in the west, the precipitation deficit is increasing, and a heat wave there will further reduce the harvest potential.

The pace of corn exports from Ukraine remains high, with 1.62 million tons of corn exported in the 26 days of June compared to 1.3 million tons in the same period last year. Overall, corn exports in 2025/26 MY amounted to 20.93 million tons compared to 21.96 million tons in the same period in the previous season.

Due to a lack of supply, export purchase prices for corn in Ukraine remain at $215–216/t or UAH 10,700–10,800/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Experts expect a significant increase in demand from European buyers due to a sharp increase in corn prices in the EU, but demand prices in Ukraine on the western border remain at 190-191 EUR/t – loaded on euro wagons.

Today’s USDA report on US planted areas could come as a surprise to the market, although traders expect a slight decrease in the estimate to 95.1 million acres compared to the March forecast of 95.3 million acres.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices