Corn prices in Ukraine continue to grow, but are limited by low world prices
Slight increase in export prices for corn has led to an increase in purchase prices in Ukraine to the level of the beginning of the season, which has increased sales by farmers.
This week in Ukraine, the export price of demand for corn in the ports of the black sea increased by 2-3 $/t to 202-204 $/t, as traders are trying to increase supply. Hryvnia prices increased by 100-150 UAH/t to 9550-9650 UAH/t due to the dollar appreciation.
In the first half of December, the rate of corn exports from Ukraine fell sharply to 875 thousand tons compared to 2 million tons in the same period last year. In general, in 2024/25 MY (as of December 16), Ukraine exported 8.08 mln tonnes of corn, down 1.5% compared to last year, although at the beginning of the season the exports were significantly higher than last year.
Increased competition with corn from the US and South America in the EU market and reduced demand from China remain the main factors of pressure on prices.
the March corn futures in Paris this week are trading at 207,25 €/t or 217,6 $/t (-2.4% for the month).
The quotes are under pressure from the increase of the Ministry of agriculture of France forecast corn crop in the country from 14.62 to 15 million tons, which is 15.5% higher than in 2023. Therefore, Ukrainian farmers should seize the moment and sell corn at still quite high prices.
December corn futures in Chicago for the week fell by 1.1% to 174,6 $/t (-0.9% for the month).
According to Conab, in Brazil on December 5, corn of the first harvest planted 75% of the planned area (73.5% last year). In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, 4% of the crops have reached the ripening stage, and the harvesting will start in late December. The company managed to sow 97% of the area with soybeans in the optimal time, which will allow to sow corn of the second harvest in time.
South Korean company FLC at the tender on December 17 purchased 66 thousand tons of corn of arbitrary origin for delivery in March 2025 from Olam at the price of 235.99 $/t CFR, while the prices for deliveries in November – December amounted to 240-246 $/t CFR.
It is expected that the bill on financing of the US government will allow to sell E15 throughout the year, avoiding blocking sales in the summer months, which will support corn prices in the US due to increased demand from the ethanol industry.
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