Corn market pauses as traders expect USDA to cut US crop forecast

The global corn market remains subdued ahead of the USDA’s August WASDE report, due on August 12. Market participants expect the agency to lower its US corn production forecast for the MY 2026/27, as well as its estimates for US and global ending stocks. Against this backdrop, physical market activity remains limited, while Chicago corn futures are trading without a clear direction.

At the close on August 10, September corn futures in Chicago slipped 0.17% to $4.38 per bushel, while December futures declined 0.05% to $4.61 per bushel. The market largely ignored support from higher crude oil prices, with traders reluctant to take new positions ahead of the WASDE report. At the same time, analysts expect the USDA to raise its 2025/26 corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil.

US export indicators remain relatively strong. Corn export inspections totaled 1.74 mln tons in the week ended August 6, down 8% from 1.89 mln tons a week earlier but above market expectations of 1.39–1.67 mln tons. The USDA also reported a private sale of 105 thsd tons of corn to an unknown destination for delivery in the MY 2025/26.

In Brazil, the second-crop corn harvest in the Center-South region reached 79% of the planted area as of August 6, up from 69% a week earlier, although still behind 88% at the same point last year. Brazil exported 1.18 mln tons of corn in the first week of August, compared with 6.85 mln tons shipped during the whole of August 2025.

Trading activity in the Ukrainian corn market remains limited. Buyers and sellers are largely staying on the sidelines amid heightened uncertainty in the Black Sea region and are waiting for clearer signals before committing to new business. The August WASDE is expected to provide the next major direction for the global corn market, particularly through updated estimates for US production and ending stocks.

Tags: corn, prices, USA, crop forecast