Corn exports from Ukraine may be halved

Demand for the new Ukrainian corn harvest has risen sharply, with importers stepping up, while supply from farmers remains limited, with agriholdings selling the most. Interest in Ukrainian corn has increased amid news of lower harvests in both Ukraine and South America. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the framework of the VAR.

“In September, Ukraine exported 200 thousand tons of corn, and although this is a transitional period, we expect the main export volumes in October, November and December,” PUSK analysts say. Last marketing year, Ukraine exported about 30 million tons of corn. This season, however, much smaller volumes are expected due to reduced stocks – as of September 1, there were only 600 thousand tons in warehouses. “We forecast a corn harvest of 21-22 million tons, of which about 5 million will be consumed on the domestic market. The export potential of corn is estimated at 15-17 million tons, which is almost half as much,” the experts emphasize.

At the same time, global markets show high demand for Ukrainian corn, especially in Europe. “Spain is literally sucking up Ukrainian corn: by the end of last week, the price rose to $222-224 per ton, while at the beginning of the week it started at $215. Portugal has also joined the purchases,” analysts say. However, Ukrainian corn faces competition from the US. “American exporters offer corn at $2-3 per ton cheaper, which makes importers, in particular Spain, switch to American corn in November and December,” PUSK analysts add.

The global market is also influenced by external factors, in particular, the planting campaign in Argentina. “Corn crops in Argentina are facing a lack of moisture, which can seriously affect the harvest and, as a result, world prices,” the experts comment. Despite local fluctuations, corn prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the season. “We already see upward trends. By the end of the year, the notional price may reach $200-205 per ton, and in the spring – even $220-230. However, in the next 2-3 weeks, prices may temporarily drop to $175-178 per ton,” the analysts conclude.

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Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, prices