Conab expects big soybean crop in Brazil

About 152.4 million tons of soybeans can be harvested by Brazilian farmers in the 2022/23 marketing year. Analysts of the agricultural agency Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) voiced this forecast in their October report, raising their estimate by 2 million tons by September. Compared to the previous season, the gross oilseed harvest may increase by almost 27 million tons. Harvesting in the current marketing year is planned on an area of ​​42.9 million hectares (+1.4 million hectares per year).

Conab also notes that the sales of South American soybeans to foreign markets in the new season will increase by 17.6 million tons, to 95.9 million tons. According to preliminary estimates, not only the export of the crop will grow, but also its ending stocks, as well as domestic consumption – up to 6.3 million tons (+2 million tons) and 55 million tons (+2.7 million tons), respectively.

A similar situation is observed with soybean meal: in MY 2022/23, production may increase from 37.3 million tons (MY 2021/22) to 38.8 million tons; soybean oil – from 9.9 million tons to 10.3 million tons.

Recall that last season, Brazil faced a serious drought that prevented farmers from harvesting the expected amount of soybean crop (final figures for 2021/22 MY are approximately 125 million tons).

According to AgRural’s preliminary forecasts, the gross oilseed harvest in the new season will be at the level of 148.5 million tons. The Brazilian government also expects a record harvest of 150 million tons. In StoneX – 153.8 million tons.

At the moment, the country is the largest oilseed producer in the world. The tropical climate and relative availability of space make this region ideal for growing not only soybeans, but also corn – however, these two crops mainly go abroad, covering most of the needs of the entire world market.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast