COCERAL cuts EU grain crop forecast due to extreme heat

The European grain trade association COCERAL has lowered its 2026 grain production forecast for the EU and the UK. Total grain output is now projected at 286.6 mln tons, down 23.4 mln tons from last year. The downward revision was driven by the recent wave of extreme heat, which significantly worsened crop prospects across several European countries.

The soft wheat crop forecast was reduced to 140.8 mln tons, compared with 143.7 mln tons in the previous estimate and 149.8 mln tons harvested in 2025. According to COCERAL, extreme heat affected grain filling in France, Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and Spain, where crop losses proved greater than previously expected.

The corn outlook was revised even more sharply, with production now estimated at 52.7 mln tons, down from 57.2 mln tons in the previous forecast and 57.4 mln tons last year. France is expected to see the largest decline, with its corn crop falling to 9.4 mln tons from 13.8 mln tons a year earlier. Reduced planted area also contributed to the lower production outlook.

COCERAL also lowered its rapeseed crop forecast to 21.2 mln tons, compared with 21.5 mln tons previously. However, the expansion of harvested area from 6.4 mln to 6.8 mln hectares partly offset the impact of adverse weather, leaving rapeseed less affected than wheat and corn.

Barley production is now forecast at 57.6 mln tons, compared with 58.8 mln tons in the previous estimate and 63.8 mln tons in 2025. According to COCERAL, spring barley suffered more from the recent heatwave than winter barley, which had largely completed its development before the hottest weather arrived.

Tags: France, Poland, wheat, Germany, Hungary, corn, EU, UK