Coceral cuts EU grain crop forecast and raises rapeseed estimate

Coceral has cut its 2026 forecast for major grain production in the EU-27 and the UK by 8 mln tons to 279 mln tons. For comparison, the 2025 crop totaled 307.4 mln tons. The downgrade mainly reflects the impact of summer heat and drought.

The soft wheat crop forecast was reduced from 140.8 mln tons to 137.5 mln tons, compared with 148.7 mln tons last year. Crops in Germany and Poland were hit hardest by the heat, while France was affected to a lesser extent. The corn production estimate was cut from 52.7 mln tons to 48.6 mln tons, versus 56.5 mln tons in 2025.

The outlook for corn deteriorated particularly sharply in France and Hungary. French production is now estimated at 7.6 mln tons, down from 13.8 mln tons last year and potentially the lowest level in 20 years. Hungary is expected to harvest only 1.9 mln tons, compared with 3.8 mln tons in 2025. In addition to adverse weather, lower corn acreage across the EU also contributed to the decline.

At the same time, Coceral raised its rapeseed production forecast from 21.2 mln tons to 21.3 mln tons, close to last year’s 21.4 mln tons. Rapeseed crops were less affected by the heat than wheat and corn, while planted area increased from 6.4 mln ha to 6.8 mln ha. EU sunflower seed production is expected at 10.1–10.2 mln tons, above the 2025 level due to a significant expansion in acreage.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.9–3 mln tons, broadly in line with last year. Total production of the main oilseeds — rapeseed, sunflower seed and soybeans — could reach 34.3–34.5 mln tons in 2026, exceeding the 2025 level and partially offsetting the shortage of feed grains through higher supplies of meal and vegetable oils.

Tags: Hungary, corn, crop forecast, EU, UK, France, Poland, soybean, wheat, sunseed, rapeseed, Germany