In 2024, export sales to Mexico reached $31.4 billion, slightly below Canada at $32.4 billion. Given recent trends, Mexico likely will surpass Canada this year, CoBank said.
“The rise of Mexico as a customer has been a huge success story for US agriculture,” said Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. “But a few risk factors are developing that could slow the pace of additional growth. Mexico’s economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024. Mexican consumers’ purchasing power will be more challenged in 2025.”
Since 2020, Mexico’s share of all US agricultural exports rose to 16.4% from 11.2%. On a volume basis, corn, pork, dairy products, soybeans and poultry products make up the top five US commodities purchased by Mexico, according to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data.
At $13.9 billion, grain, feed, oilseeds and related products comprise the largest category of US ag exports to Mexico. In 2024, the grain export volume to Mexico increased by 27% to 41.98 million tonnes.
Strong recent growth largely is attributable to rising feed demand for the country’s expanding animal protein industry and severe drought, which is limiting domestic crop yields and grazing conditions. Domestic corn production in 2024 was down 16% from 2022 levels.
Given the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, Mexico will almost certainly overtake China as the largest export market for US grain, feed and oilseeds in 2025.
Mexico is also a sizeable importer of a wide array of US packaged food and related processed agricultural products. Consumer-packaged goods, bakery and confectionery items represent most of those products. Other categories include fresh and processed fruit and vegetables, sweeteners and tree nuts.
Over the past decade, cross border trade of food and agricultural products between the United States and Mexico has doubled to reach $80 billion. While free trade agreements have fallen out of favor in recent years, Fox said it’s hard to see the interconnectedness in food systems between the United States and Mexico as anything but a “win-win” for both countries.
“Consumers on both sides of the border benefit from a wider array of food choices at lower prices than they would otherwise,” Fox said.
