China’s soybean oil exports could reach a record 1.35 mln tons

China’s soybean oil exports could reach a record 1.35 mln tons in the MY 2026/27 amid substantial soybean crushing volumes and weakening domestic demand for vegetable oils. According to FAS USDA, the country’s total vegetable oil imports are forecast to decline from 6.9 mln tons in 2025/26 to 6.4 mln tons in the current season. Higher Chinese soybean oil exports could intensify competition in the global vegetable oil market, particularly with sunflower and palm oils.

Meanwhile, China’s soybean import forecast for 2026/27 has been revised upward by 1.8% to 110 mln tons. Despite the upward revision, expected purchases remain below the previous season’s estimated 114 mln tons. Domestic soybean production is forecast at 20.1 mln tons, with planted area estimated at around 10 mln hectares. As of October 28, Chinese farmers had harvested more than 80% of the soybean crop.

Soybean crushing in China is projected at 106 mln tons in 2026/27, compared with 108 mln tons a year earlier, while total oilseed crushing could reach 145.4 mln tons. One factor reshaping the domestic market has been rising soybean meal prices, which increased from 2,850 yuan/t in June to 3,450 yuan/t in September, a gain of approximately 21%. Higher prices are prompting feed manufacturers to reduce soybean meal inclusion rates and switch to alternative protein ingredients.

In international trade, China continues to diversify its soybean purchases between the United States and South American suppliers. As of October 22, state-owned enterprises had purchased 15.1 mln tons of US soybeans for delivery in the MY 2026/27, against a commitment to buy at least 25 mln tons. Meanwhile, the 10% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans continues to give South American supplies a price advantage, making them more attractive to private importers.

Despite the arrival of the new harvest, domestic soybean prices in China remain elevated. Soybeans are trading at an average of 4,679 yuan/t, or approximately $698/t, nearly 8% above the year-earlier level. Future market developments will depend on demand for soybean meal and vegetable oils, trade policies affecting US soybeans and crushing plant utilization rates. The expected increase in soybean oil exports could become an additional factor influencing global vegetable oil prices and trade flows.

Tags: China, soybean oil