China’s soybean oil exports could reach a record 1.35 mln tons

China’s soybean oil exports could climb to an all-time high of 1.35 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) agricultural attaché. The projected increase is mainly driven by sustained domestic soybean crushing and weakening demand for edible oils. Meanwhile, China’s edible oil imports are expected to decline from 6.9 mln tons to 6.4 mln tons, potentially intensifying competition in the global edible oil market, particularly for sunflower and palm oils.

China’s soybean import forecast for 2026/27 has been raised by 1.8% to 110 mln tons, although this remains below the previous season’s 114 mln tons. Domestic soybean production is projected at 20.1 mln tons, compared with 19.93 mln tons a year earlier, while the planted area is estimated at around 10 mln hectares. Soybean crushing volumes could decline from 108 mln to 106 mln tons, while total oilseed crushing is forecast at 145.4 mln tons.

China sharply reduced its soybean purchases from international markets in October 2026. Imports totaled 7.35 mln tons, down 38% from September and 22.5% below the record level recorded in October last year. This was the lowest October volume since 2023. During January–October, the country imported 93.48 mln tons of soybeans, a 2.3% year-on-year decline. The slowdown in purchases reflects high domestic inventories, weak crushing margins and sluggish demand from the livestock sector.

Rising soybean meal prices are adding further pressure to the market, with prices increasing from 2,850 yuan per ton in June to 3,450 yuan per ton in September. This is encouraging feed manufacturers to reduce soybean meal inclusion rates in favor of alternative protein ingredients. Meanwhile, China continues to diversify its soybean imports between the United States and South American suppliers. As of October 22, Chinese state-owned companies had purchased 15.1 mln tons of US soybeans for delivery in 2026/27, compared with a stated purchasing commitment of 25 mln tons. With a 10% retaliatory tariff still imposed on US soybeans, private Chinese crushers continue to favor more competitively priced South American supplies.

The outlook for a recovery in China’s soybean imports toward the end of the year will depend on US-China trade relations, the availability of South American supplies and improvements in crushing margins. A further constraint is the declining pig population, which is weighing on feed demand. Despite the arrival of the new soybean crop, domestic soybean prices in China remain elevated at an average of 4,679 yuan per ton (approximately $698), nearly 8% higher year-on-year. Under these conditions, high inventories and subdued domestic demand could continue to limit soybean imports while supporting China’s soybean oil export potential.

Tags: China, export, soybean oil