China’s share of Brazilian soybean exports falls to a three-year low

Brazil exported a record 82.8 mln tons of soybeans to China in the 2025/26 marketing year, but China’s share of total Brazilian soybean exports declined to 72.3%, the lowest level in three years. The shift was particularly noticeable in September, when China accounted for 72% of Brazil’s soybean exports, compared with 92% in the same month a year earlier. This indicates a gradual diversification of export destinations, although China remains Brazil’s largest soybean buyer.

One of the main reasons for China’s declining share was Brazil’s expanding presence in other international markets. During the 2025/26 season, Brazilian soybean shipments to the European Union, the Middle East, Africa, and other countries in Asia and Oceania reached record levels. These destinations are also important markets for US soybean exporters, meaning that growing Brazilian shipments are intensifying competition with the United States.

Meanwhile, China has been actively diversifying its soybean import sources, significantly increasing purchases from the United States. In mid-October, weekly US soybean export sales reached their highest level since November 2023, driven primarily by Chinese demand. China currently accounts for more than half of contracted US soybean exports.

The return of Chinese buyers is supporting demand for US soybeans, but competitive pressure from Brazil remains strong. Brazilian exporters are strengthening their positions in markets where they traditionally compete with the United States, potentially reshaping global trade flows and intensifying price competition. At the same time, China’s broader range of soybean suppliers is reducing its dependence on any single origin and providing greater flexibility in its import strategy.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean