China’s phosphate fertilizer exports collapse to near zero, worsening global supply shortages

China has virtually halted phosphate fertilizer exports in 2026, after shipping 5.3 mln tons to the global market in 2025. The sharp decline in shipments is linked to a shortage of sulfur, a key input in fertilizer production, and Beijing’s policy of prioritizing domestic supplies. According to commodity market intelligence agency Argus Media, the absence of Chinese exports is increasing pressure on the global phosphate fertilizer market, where import-dependent countries are already facing tight supplies and high prices.

According to Lynn Wang, senior consultant for China at Argus, the Chinese government uses export restrictions to regulate its domestic fertilizer market. Due to tight sulfur supplies, Chinese phosphate fertilizer producers are currently focused exclusively on meeting domestic demand. Beijing is also restricting sulfuric acid exports, which play an important role in phosphate fertilizer production. As a result, even with production capacity available, China’s ability to resume international shipments remains constrained by raw material availability.

The decline in Chinese exports is aggravating problems in other major agricultural markets. In Brazil, sulfur shortages have already led to production shutdowns at plants manufacturing monoammonium phosphate (MAP), single superphosphate (SSP) and triple superphosphate (TSP). This is further restricting global fertilizer supplies and increasing farmers’ dependence on the availability of imported products. According to the Argus affordability index, phosphate fertilizers are currently at their least affordable level for agricultural producers in years.

Argus forecasts a partial recovery in Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports to approximately 2 mln tons in 2027. However, this would remain significantly below the 5.3 mln tons exported in 2025. Further growth in shipments will depend primarily on more stable sulfur supplies to Chinese producers and the easing of foreign trade restrictions. Until then, the global market will remain sensitive to any disruptions in phosphate fertilizer production and supply.

Unlike phosphate fertilizers, China’s urea exports remain considerably more stable. According to Argus, China is expected to export around 6–7 mln tons of urea in 2026 and could maintain similar volumes in 2027. Increased supplies of this nitrogen fertilizer have helped lower global urea prices since the start of the US-Iran war. Meanwhile, the phosphate fertilizer market remains under pressure from raw material shortages and limited supplies, creating additional cost risks for farmers ahead of upcoming planting seasons.

Tags: China, export, fertilizers, phosphate fertilizer