China’s demand for soybeans will remain strong in the fourth quarter

China may import a record amount of soybeans in the current calendar year, and the demand for the oilseed from China is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter.

According to the preliminary estimates, Brazil will supply China with the record amount of soybeans in the current year, while the demand for the U.S. beans will be somewhat restrained.

“Traditionally, the main volumes of the new soybean crop in the U.S. appear on the world market in September, when the Brazilian export season ends. But this year, China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are significantly lower than the traditional level,” the report said.

Traders note that the price gap between Brazilian and U.S. soybeans has decreased, as the active harvesting in the U.S. is now underway. At the same time, the processors still prefer the Brazilian oilseed because of its better quality.

Meanwhile, in the period from January to September of this year, China received 77.8 mln tonnes of soybeans (+14.4% y/y). According to one of the Shanghai traders, in October, the imports may reach 6.5 mln tons, in November – 10 mln tons, and in December – 9.5 mln tons. Thus, the total volume of purchases by China in 2023 will amount to a record 104-105 million tons, which is 15% higher than last year (91.1 million tons).

Tags: soybean, imports, China