China’s continued tariffs on US soybeans could strengthen Brazil’s position

The continuation of Chinese import tariffs on US soybeans could support Brazil’s competitiveness in the world’s largest soybean market. China and the United States agreed on a framework to reduce tariffs on around $30 bln worth of goods from each side, but soybeans were not included in the list of products covered by the tariff relief.

China currently applies a total 13% tariff on US soybeans, including an additional 10% levy, while Brazilian soybeans face the standard 3% duty. Brazilian market participants believe that maintaining this gap could support soybean prices and export premiums in Brazil.

At the same time, the impact of this factor is limited at the end of the current season, as Brazil is nearing the end of its 2025/26 export campaign. Old-crop supplies are tightening, farmer selling has slowed, and domestic crushers are competing with exporters for the remaining available soybeans.

The future distribution of Chinese demand will largely depend on Brazil’s next crop. S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts Brazilian soybean production at 177 mln tons in 2026/27, down from 188 mln tons in 2025/26. Analysts say that if Brazil’s crop remains large, China’s need for additional purchases of US soybeans could remain limited.

News that US soybeans would not receive additional tariff relief pushed Chicago futures lower: on September 28, the November contract fell by 30.75 cents to 1,288.25 cents/bu. At the same time, China has already committed to purchasing 25 mln tons of US soybeans annually in 2026–2028, meaning trade flows will depend not only on tariffs but also on the implementation of these agreements and crop volumes in South America.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, imports, China