China’s commitment to purchase set volume of US soyabeans questioned

Six cargoes of US soyabeans were reportedly loading or in line to load this week at US Gulf ports for shipment to China, with a seventh enroute.

The shipments would be the first deliveries of US soyabeans to China since earlier in the year, the report said.

China had bought 1.584M tonnes of US soyabeans for delivery in 2025/26 over three days during the week of 16 November, the largest one-week purchase in more than two years, World Grain wrote.

China’s November bookings for shipment in 2025/26 totalled 2.151M tonnes, along with a 100,000-tonne “good-faith” purchase on 30 October, the report said.

The orders had pushed up US soyabean futures and prompted selling of soyabeans in the country, where farmers had held back new crop supplies due to low prices, World Grain wrote.

However, with less than a month remaining in the calendar year, the total fell well below China’s 12M-tonne commitment, the report said.

Despite China’s renewed buying – which many traders considered minimal – doubts remain if it would fulfil either its short-term or long-term commitments, according to the report.

China had not confirmed details of the late October trade framework agreement with the USA, World Grain wrote.

Since the trade agreement had been signed, US President Donald Trump had been quoted as saying the 12M tonne commitment would be fulfilled before the early part of 2026, backtracking on Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ earlier statement that it would be met in 2025, the report said.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s 14 November World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates, total US 2025/26 soyabean exports were forecast at 1.635bn bushels (44.5M tonnes), down 50M bushels from its September forecast and down 240M bushels, or 13%, from the previous year.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX Group, was quoted as saying that China lacked storage capacity to fulfil its US soyabean commitments in addition to previous purchases.

In addition, as China continues to reduce its soyabean imports in its bid to promote self-sufficiency, its soyabean purchases are projected to decrease by 1M tonnes year-on-year to 106M tonnes in 2025/26, according to a 4 December USDA report.

Meanwhile, Brazilian soyabeans have been trading below US shipments, according to trade sources quoted in the World Grain report.

Against this backdrop, the USDA has forecast Brazilian soyabean exports in 2025/26 at 112.5M tonnes, up 9% from the previous year.

Tags: US, purchase, shipment, soyabeans, commitment, China, exports